Liquids-Rich Shale Evaluation: Modelling and Optimization of Hydraulically Fractured Liquids-Rich Shale Wells

Imperial Users onl

National innovation system, competitiveness and economic growth

Differences in income-elasticities of imports and exports among countries bring about distinct degrees of external constraints to growth. This argument has been pointed out by Prebisch and by authors in the Kaldorian tradition. Prebisch’s explanations for this phenomenon relate to the differences in international insertion between agrarian / peripheral and industrial / central economies. Kaldorian authors, in turn, refer to Prebisch only to explain why such elasticities differ between products and between countries. However, even after undergoing industrialization processes, several economies still face external constraints to growth. The aim of this paper is to explain differences in trade elasticities among industrial economies. Therefore, it intends to demonstrate, by using the Neo-Schumpeterian literature, the causal relations between the development of a National Innovation System, the differences in income-elasticities of imports and exports, the degree of competitiveness and the degree of external vulnerability of an economy.national innovation system, competitiveness, external vulnerability

Modeling and forecasting the volatility of Brazilian asset returns

The goal of this paper is twofold. First, using five of the most actively traded stocks in the Brazilian financial market, this paper shows that the normality assumption commonly used in the risk management area to describe the distributions of returns standardized by volatilities is not compatible with volatilities estimated by EWMA or GARCH models. In sharp contrast, when the information contained in high frequency data is used to construct the realized volatility measures, we attain the normality of the standardized returns, giving promise of improvements in Value-at-Risk statistics. We also describe the distributions of volatilities of the Brazilian stocks, showing that they are nearly lognormal. Second, we estimate a simple model to the log of realized volatilities that differs from the ones in other studies. The main difference is that we do not find evidence of long memory. The estimated model is compared with commonly used alternatives in an out-of-sample forecasting experiment.

Growth cycles in Latin America and developed countries

The Minskyan approach to financial instability and its effects on the real economy have recently been revived in order to explain the exchange rate crises undergone by the so-called emergent economies. Economies of this type are characterized by repeated scarcity of foreign currency, which can be explained by using Neo-Schumpeterian theory. Based on the Minskyan approach and on the Neo-Schumpeterian literature, this study seeks to demonstrate that there is a cyclic recurrence of exchange rate crises in Latin-American (peripheral) economies. By using data on international liquidity, the balance of payments and the increase in production in the G7 economies and in thirteen Latin-American economies, it was found that the Latin-American economies mirror the cycles of international liquidity.financial instability, national innovation system, cycles